New Republican rule complicates Rep. Paul Ryan’s future
New House Republican Conference rules prevent members seeking higher office to hold committee and subcommittee chairs. Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) said, the “idea is not to have major committees,… Read More
Can the midterm outcome “solve” Washington’s problems? No. But it can make things worse.
An old adage is that lawmakers win reelection by “running against Washington.” According to a recent Gallup poll, just 14% of Americans approve of Congress’s job performance. So while… Read More
Vote Scores are hurting Vulnerable Senate Democrats
Several Senate Democrats are running their campaigns as far away from the President as possible. Democrats are defending six states that Mitt Romney won in 2012. Three Democratic incumbents… Read More
Food Fight! Can Food Brands Predict Elections?
A few weeks ago on Meet the Press, Chuck Todd proposed that the fate of the Senate could come down to the distribution of Starbucks coffee shops (an elitist,… Read More
Don’t like the president’s “power grab” on ISIS? Blame Congress.
Pundits on both sides of the aisle are criticizing the Obama administration’s decision to bomb ISIS targets without seeking congressional approval. For example, Andrew Sullivan compares Obama’s actions to… Read More
Recess is Over: Congress (will be) back in Session.
Congress returns from recess next week after an unexpectedly successful final week in July. Congress passed a significant Veterans health bill and temporarily extended the Highway Trust Fund. While there… Read More
Quantifying Bill’s Value to Hillary’s Campaign (Part 2)
In a recent post, I explored whether it’s possible to quantify Bill’s value to Hillary Clinton’s campaign (see here). In other words: Do voters reward (and punish) Hillary… Read More
Quantifying Bill’s Value to Hillary’s Campaign (Part I)
In presidential elections, relationships matter. For example, political scientists know that the relationship between economic conditions, the number of causalities in war, and the incumbent’s party affiliation explain the… Read More
Yes, Democrats can win the House (Though Probably not This Year)
Chris Cillizza wrote a piece titled, “Why it’s going to be hard for Democrats to win back the House this decade.” He makes the argument that with a declining share… Read More
Seven Numbers to Remember About the VA Compromise
According to multiple sources, Representative Jeff Miller (R-FL) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) have reached a tentative agreement on a bill to overhaul the Veterans Affairs health care… Read More